It’s always telling when some one insists that a statement is true when they themselves know that it isn’t.

It’s 💯 the case the Biden isn’t the nominee today. I’m not arguing if it’s going to be a progressive or a insider that replaces him. Frankly, I could give a shit because either will be doing instantly better than Biden.

Biden is replaceable and there is a cult of personality that has developed that believes this isn’t the case. They’re wrong. There as delusional as the right wing MAGA crowd and their doing MAGAs work for them as the useful idiots that they are.

It’s important to keep it clear that I’m not arguing that some how magically were going to replace Biden with a progressive. I’m arguing that needs to, and will be, replaced. That’s what Thursday showed us, and I know for a fact that the Beltway heard this.

The party that needs to be convinced is Harris. And I think she can be. All of these machinations are happening this weekend, as we speak.

My called shot: Biden steps down as early as Monday, as late as two weeks from Monday. I’m going to be making some calls and seeing what tea I can find spilled.

It’s not improbable at all.

Hasn’t he like… repeatedly claimed that his uncle was eaten by cannibals?

exactly.

Who says it won’t be an establishment candidate?

Bruh keep this guy off any stage.

20:1 specifically?

https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html

That’s just the odds of Biden (or Trump for that matter) keeling over for literally any reason whatsoever based on the social security actuarial table. So if I can get 20:1, I should be break even betting against any octogenarian.

There is a little bit better than a 1 in 15 chance, that for any 81 year old, they’ll die that year. So I hedged it to 1:20 as insurance, because I figured I’m really only betting on the first 9 months of the year. If I can get 1:20, that’s break even odds (actually slightly in my favor). Also, figure the presidency, campaigning; that shit aint a walk in the park. Probably more likely still to die in office than a standard octogenarian.

I’ll give you 10:1 if you bet at least 50 bucks. I lose, you make $50; I win, I make $500. Hows that sound?

Edit: As to how to enforce it, we can make a community and pin it there. ITs similar to what we used to do in a bar I frequented where we would bet pints (very similarly) on whatever was happening. There was a cork-board and bets would get pinned to it. And I trust you.

Removed by mod

No fightn’ no fussn’ just love for a drug called

RO-BO-TUSSN’

Yeah. Supreme court ruled that political parties post-2016 are private clubs that can do whatever the fuck they want (Supreme Courts ruling on DNC’s ratfucking of Bernie).

Afaict from DNC rules , Biden needs to release his delegates for the first rounds of voting; from there it would proceed like any convention prior to 1976.

Honestly, it would be a great thing for the Democrats to do this. All of a sudden people would really fucking care about the election.

do not get a vote on whether or not to elect a senile President this cycle

Yeah this is just false.

jfc that is such a perfect meme.

Here: 🏆

If you actually want to bet spell out your terms and odds.

You’ve got the entire thing backwards: Biden is the albatross.

ANY other democrat polls better than Biden. Biden is the worst possible democrat to be running. Period. Except maybe Hillary, and even then, she’d be doing better than Biden right now.

You swap out Biden with literally any hollow blue suit, and you are suddenly 10 points up in the polls.

I mean, look. I was on both of Bernie’s campaigns. I put in thousands of calls for the guy. But brother, Its a pipe dream. Bernie polls 20-25 points ahead of both Trump and Biden. It wouldn’t be a W, it would be a Blue version of this map. Bernie would CRUSH Trump.

But its not going to happen. The DNC would rather lose to Trump than ever consider a genuine socialist. I would LOVE to be wrong on this, but its not going to happen.

Honestly, we could probably get Katie Porter through the wickets. We could probably get Gretchen Witmer through. I think we could get Inslee in. I’d put each of these at less that 20% stand alone probability.

Honestly, the best bet, the one I think has both the highest probability of getting the nom, and can actually win:

Andy Beshear

He’s a somewhat progressive southern > two term < Democratic governor.

He’s won Kentucky. Twice. Hes “a bit” progressive, but not a Bernie or a Ro Khanna.

You know who else was a two term, southern, slightly progressive governor?

Bill Clinton.

I’ll bet Bernie with my heart. I bet its going to be Andy Beshear with my wallet.

I see both sides of what you are saying; but if this is what you get when you put the guy on stage?

Bro keep him under a rock. Its just much much more evidence that Biden can-not-be the candidate if we need to win this one.

I mean. Sure I guess?

So it was unfair. Sure.

But Biden and his camp didn’t need to agree to a debate. It was going to get them nothing. There was NOTHING to gain here and everything to lose.

And they lost… everything .

It shows that the Biden team isn’t capable of manging this election; it showed that Biden isn’t capable of offering the rhetoric it takes to win.

The Presidential role is a communications job. If he can’t do the communications part of this, he__cant__win.

Biden was in the mid-forties before the debate

Bro Biden was in the mid thirties before the debate.

I’ll bet you a night in a hotel.

Hubris, its whats for dinner.