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Cake day: June 18th, 2023

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  • The US government system was set up to be better than the monarchies its designers had grown up under. In this sense it has been wildly successful. But… it wasn’t really designed to scale to the size it has, nor to account for the massive changes in technology that have occurred since it was written.

    The leaders of the time decided to replace the first attempt only 6 years after it was ratified, and I believe they fully expected any future government to do the same if they found the current system wasn’t working. They did try to make the new system more adaptable by adding the Amendment process, which was frankly genius and unprecedented in government systems prior to that.

    I think it’s very important to remember where and when the system we have came from, and to try to think like the people who wrote it, and to remember that at the time they had no other models for successful government beyond the writings of Enlightenment-period historians. It’s very easy to criticize the current system. It’s far more difficult (and substantially more important) to draft a better system.








  • Guns, Butter, and Growth: The Consequences of Military Spending Reconsidered

    […] military spending, social spending, the economy, tax revenue, debt, and the money supply are all related to one another. This implies statistical models that estimate the effect of military spending on social spending or on the economy without considering the ways in which these variables affect and are affected by one another likely are misspecified.

    […] we find that military spending has a nonlinear effect on economic growth that varies over time. Increasing military spending leads to significantly lower GDP growth in the first three to six months following the increase and then significantly higher economic growth starting approximately one year after the increase.


    Oversimplification leads to bad conclusions.