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Cake day: December 23rd, 2023

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  • Germany is just hit by a combination of different factors. Some are bad luck, some are bad politics, but none of them are incredibly dangerous. The gas crisis is solved and gas prices are already at a fairly normal level again, so consumers will get more money from lower energy prices. Currently German has a lot of strikes. Obviously that slows down the economy right now, but higher pay means workers spend more money, which increases consumption, which is currently slowing down the German economy. Global manufacturing is down due to lower demand. This hits Germany badly, due to not only having a large manufacturing sector(manufacturing as a share of GDP is nearly twice as high for Germany then France for example), but also due to Germany being a large manufacturer of factory grade machines. Obviously manufacturing companies invest less, with low demand, so the sector is hit especially hard. A domestic bad policy is the debt brake, which leads to the German government investing too little in Germany.

    However the German labor market is strong with low unemployment. Germany can easily borrow a lot of money, if it chooses too and the current “crisis” is about a tenth of the decline Germany had in the great recession of 2009. So chances are this is going to sort itself out and to a large part already has done so. It most certainly is not going to hurt other EU countries especially hard.







  • Germany has been calling on Israel to only target Hamaz since the start of the invasion. However destroying Hamaz requires the use of weapons and civilan casulties were somewhat expected. However Germany has been calling for a ceasefire for months now and has been clear that it does not approve of Israel invading Rafah. The food situation is getting to the point, that is makes 30k civilan deaths look like a joke. Hence Germany is dropping in food and other aid, while working on setting up naval supply of the Gaza Strip. That is after increasing aid for the Gaza strip in recent months on a near regualr bases. The problem being getting it into Gaza.

    The difference this time is that Scholz is going to Israel to talk about what is going on in Gaza and is this time a lot more critical. Lets see.



  • We need to destroy Russias ability to threaten the EU and remove Putin and any other similar leader from power in Russia. That should be the goal of the EU and not to go into a full scale war with Russia. Seriously Putin is not winning that war. The Russian civilian economy is shrinking fast, Russias war reserves are depleting, oil income is falling, soldiers are being lost on a massive scale with a demogrophics, which does not allow for that, and Russias weapons reserves from Soviet times are falling. Russia has two or three years of full scale war in it. The only thing we need to do is to keep Ukraine in the fight, while destroying as much of Russia as possible.


  • The phaseout of fossil fuel cars required a qualified majority. That means that as long as two out of Germany, France, Poland, Spain and Italy are for it, it is going to stay. Also some other votes are needed, but that is basically it.

    Also the CDU needs a coalition partner and that means either SPD or Greens, which voted for the phase out, or AFD at which point the problem of smoke from cars is the least problem in Germany.






  • Last year the EU produced 42% of its electricity with renewables. 18.9% of it with wind and 8.0% with solar. There is also a 24.5% share of nuclear, which is probably going to stay stable. That leaves 31.9% fossil fuels. So we have to a bit more then double wind and solar installations in the EU. That is entirly possible to do. Especially with offshore becoming as cheap as it is and we still have a lot of rooftops without solar.

    About storage there is a wonderfull thing called electricity grids. The worst days for wind last year wind made up a bit less then 10% of electricity production. That is of an average of 18.9% over the entire year. For solar it is worse in wind, but luckily wind makes up a lot of the rest. Combined that means that the worst days still have 13% wind + solar EU wide. So about half of average. As soon as you extend it to a week the worst ones are at something like 17% of wind + solar. So with a strong enough grid we get pretty close. As soon as you add a bit of storage to the grid and overbuilt wind and solar a bit, renewables work just fine.

    Honestly we are pretty close to solving it. Most EU countries are at over 50% clean electricity today. Even better Putin caused massive built ups of clean power generation. We are going to be fine, if we continue in that field.


  • The very simple fact is that we have enough gas right now. So Biden not permitting new LNG terminals in the US is perfectly fine for the EU. Not only that, but LNG is more expensive then pipeline gas and we are reducing gas consumption. So in the coming years we are reducing LNG consumption Also no coal will not be replaced by gas on a large scale in the electricity mix. Right now EU wide it makes up 13% of electricity production and we are adding a lot of renewables to our grid. So coal will be replaced by renewables, instead of fossil gas.

    As long as Biden does not cut LNG supply from existing infrastructure in a big way, we will be just fine. The main new customers will be in Asia.