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Cake day: July 14th, 2024

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  • I don’t think an attack on undersea cables would spur aggressive/invasive action. I would expect more direct, obvious, and public military presence, observation, and possibly isolation of Russia on it’s borders though.

    Human, especially civilian lives are probably a line. Sabotage that would be inconvenience rather than disabling and cause direct suffering - I don’t think it’d spur direct military action. Political - sure. The EU is already driving a hard sanctioning course, and would likely increase such political responses.

    There are alternative internet routes, and we’re not that dependent on them - in a fundamental, life or death or direct human suffering kind of way.



  • What degree of aggression against the EU would spur the EU into action?

    Russia already can’t take over Ukraine. It would not be able to fight on more fronts, and certainly not against a strong EU with many more resources to spare.

    Cyberwarfare and individual assassinations, sabotage, and disinformation campaigns were not enough yet. The EU is patient, because there’s nothing to win. But the invasion of Ukraine showed that the EU can suddenly and significantly oppose Russia when certain lines are crossed.

    Surely, it’s in the interest of Russia both as preparation, but in large part to try to unsettle the EU, mainly its citizens. Much like it tried with Nuke warnings. GPS disruptions across borders. Gas and oil cutoffs. Blocking Ukraine food exports. Etc etc.